LeagueQuant
Football probabilities, published as distributions
LeagueQuant publishes probability distributions and method notes about football matches. Nothing here is a tip, a recommendation, or advice to act on: the numbers describe uncertainty, and every band in a distribution is a share of chance — never a selection.
What a probability distribution is
A probability distribution assigns each possible outcome a share of chance, and the shares together sum to one hundred. A football match has three outcomes — a home win, a draw, an away win — which is why the visual signature of this section is a bar of three bands.
A distribution makes no promise about which outcome occurs. Even the largest band leaves most of the chance elsewhere, and the sizes move as information changes. That is the whole point of publishing them: uncertainty, stated in numbers instead of conviction.
No forecasts published yet
LeagueQuant has published no forecasts and carries no accuracy record. Live forecasts will be published with a hash before kick-off and scored automatically afterwards — the misses included, not only the hits. Until that ledger goes live, every distribution rendered in this section is labelled as an example and describes no real fixture.
What you will find here
Three kinds of page live here. Reference pages hold the stable material: what a distribution is, the notation in use, the vocabulary the method pages assume. Method notes explain how the distributions are built and how they will be scored. Reviews take a critical read of public football analytics work.
- Home 46.5%
- Draw 27%
- Away 26.5%
The bar above is an example: the three shares describe a fictional meeting of Team A and Team B, not a real fixture, and no LeagueQuant forecast lies behind them.
Reference
Stable material — definitions, notation and the vocabulary the method pages assume.
- Expected Goals (xG): What It Measures and What It Doesn't An outline of expected goals as a shot-level probability: how the metric is built, how it aggregates, and the limits that follow from model choice and sample size.
- How to Read a Match Probability Bar A reference guide to the three-band match probability bar: what each band shows, why the shares sum to 100, and how to read a distribution honestly.
- Probabilities vs Bookmaker Odds: The Margin, Explained How a decimal price turns into an implied share, why the shares in a priced three-way market add up to more than 100, and what normalising does and does not recover.
Method
How the distributions are built, what goes into them, and how they will be scored.
Reviews
Close reads of published football data — what the figures establish, how precisely they are known, and what they cannot support.
- Bundesliga 2026/27 After the Window: A Data Look The Bundesliga window closed on 1 September 2026 with six confirmed moves and almost nothing priced. This review sets out what that ledger can support.
- Premier League 2026/27: The £2bn Window in Numbers A data review of the summer 2026 window: two disclosed fees, a £2bn total that is a floor, mixed currencies, and the moves that carry no public figure.