Hull, Elversberg, Kalamata: The Promoted Clubs Outperforming Their Budgets This September

Fourteen clubs came up into Europe’s five biggest divisions plus Greece this summer, and an unusual number of them are not behaving like promoted sides. Three sit in the top eight of their leagues in mid-September.

Who came up, and after how long

England — Coventry City (back after 25 years), Ipswich Town (one year), Hull City (nine years). Germany — Schalke 04 (three years), SC Paderborn (six years), SV Elversberg (debut, the 59th club in Bundesliga history). Spain — Racing Santander (14 years), Deportivo A Coruña (eight years), Málaga CF (via the play-offs). Italy — Venezia (one year), Frosinone (two years), Monza (one year). Greece — Iraklis (nine years), Kalamata (25 years).

Sources: Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A, Super League Greece.

Play now Browse the games

Affiliate link · 18+ · terms apply

The three overperformers

Hull City — 4th in the Premier League, 8 points from 4. Level with Leeds, ahead of Chelsea, Liverpool and Brighton. Nine years away and an immediate top-four position in September is the most striking of the three.

SV Elversberg — 6th in the Bundesliga, 6 points from 3. A club playing its first ever top-flight season, sitting above Bayer Leverkusen. Their 3-4 home defeat to Mönchengladbach was among the most entertaining matches of the German season so far — a promoted side losing a seven-goal game is not a survival profile, but it is a supporter’s one.

Deportivo A Coruña — 7th in La Liga, 9 points from 6. Eight years in the wilderness for a club that finished as high as second in the Spanish top flight in the early 2000s.

Why this happens every year, and why it fades

Promoted clubs arrive with three temporary advantages. They have momentum from a winning season; opponents have no recent video of their system at this level; and their players are playing above expectation rather than defending a position. All three decay on a similar timetable — roughly matchweeks 8 to 14, which is also when the fixture list stops being kind and the first injuries to a thin squad arrive.

The counter-evidence is real too: a promoted club that banks 12-14 points before that decay starts is usually safe by March, because the bottom three rarely reach 35 points. Early points are not fool’s gold; they are simply front-loaded.

Read the guide All casino reviews

The clubs whose returns matter most

Coventry City and Kalamata, both back after a quarter of a century, are the two stories that have nothing to do with the table. A 25-year absence means a generation of supporters who have never seen their club at this level, an infrastructure built for a different division, and a wage bill that has to grow without the guarantee of staying.

Whether either survives is a question for April. Whether either season was worth having is not.

What to check in November

One number, for every club on the list above: points from home matches against the bottom half. Promoted sides are almost never relegated because of results against the top six; they are relegated because of draws at home to the teams around them. The September table does not show that yet. By the November international break, it will.

Sources

Responsible gambling. Early-season overperformance is the most reliably over-read pattern in football. If gambling is affecting your finances, work or relationships, call GamCare on 0808 8020 133 (free, 24/7) or visit BeGambleAware.org. 18+. UK players can self-exclude across all licensed operators via GAMSTOP.

This article may contain affiliate links. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org

Play now All comparisons

Affiliate link · 18+ · terms apply